In September, China's total FeNi+NPI imports reached 737,400 mt, up 41.2% MoM [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, in September 2024, China's total FeNi+NPI imports reached 737,400 mt, up 41.2% MoM and down 13.2% YoY. In terms of metal content, the total FeNi+NPI imports in September amounted to 97,000 mt (Ni contained), up 48.7% MoM and down 13.7% YoY.

By category, the increase in imports in September was mainly concentrated in NPI, with NPI imports at 715,000 mt, up 44.2% MoM and down 10.1% YoY. In September, the tightness in Indonesian nickel ore resources eased compared to the previous month, and the improvement in export resource tax tickets boosted the total exportable volume for the month. Additionally, according to SMM, entering the traditional peak season for stainless steel consumption, the previous production schedule of stainless steel mills is expected to maintain a growth trend, and the demand for raw materials remains optimistic. In terms of actual production, the domestic production of 300-series stainless steel in September was about 1.687 million mt, up about 1.17% MoM. Furthermore, the significant reduction in imports in August was mainly due to road disruptions caused by rainfall in Weda Bay and delays in customs clearance, which were resolved in September as the weather improved and customs clearance returned to normal. Entering October, with the new RKAB approvals in the Indonesian nickel ore sector and the ramp-up of new capacity, production is expected to rise. On the demand side, under the influence of domestic macro fiscal policies, the profits of stainless steel mills have recovered, and the production schedule of 300-series stainless steel remains high, with no expected decline in demand for NPI. It is anticipated that NPI imports in October will continue the upward trend from September.

Regarding FeNi, FeNi imports in September were 22,300 mt, down 15.8% MoM and down 59.1% YoY. In terms of metal content, it was 11,500 mt (Ni contained), up 78.1% MoM and down 8.2% YoY. From the perspective of import sources, the changes varied, with a significant reduction from Colombia, down about 44.6% MoM and about 38% YoY. Imports from New Caledonia were down about 39.9% MoM and about 60.2% YoY, as local FeNi producers maintained low operating rates due to riots, and future imports are expected to continue declining. On the growth side, imports from Brazil were up about 105.5% MoM and down about 28.9% YoY. In the Amazon region of Brazil, the significant drop in water levels of major rivers due to severe drought affected the efficiency of barge transportation, reducing cargo volumes and extending shipping times, with some shipments arriving in September. It is expected that with the continued entry of high-grade FeNi from Vale into the domestic market, the metal content of domestic FeNi imports may increase.